中日韩自贸区贸易效应研究——基于GTAP模型的假设分析

Study on Trade Effect of China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Zone-Hypothesis Analysis based on GTAP Model

受新冠病毒暴发的影响,国际贸易供应链遭受很大的冲击,世界各国经济均受不同程度影响,面临巨大的下滑压力。因此,抱团取暖性质的国际区域经济互助发展被寄托了更多期望,中日韩自贸区的谈判因此重回三国的政治视野。着眼于未来的“中日韩自贸区”,在分析中日韩三国贸易合作现状的基础上,选取2010~2019年间的三国货物贸易数据,首先运用ESI指数测算出各国间的贸易竞争烈度(特点),然后再运用GTAP模型检验中日韩建立自贸区的贸易效应。检验结果表明,缔约条件下的中日韩三国贸易效应均呈显性正相关关系。由此可证,为应对国际供应链危机,加快推进自贸区缔约谈判非常必要。

Affected by COVID-19,international trade supply chain has suffered great impact.The economies in the world have been affected to varying degrees,and are facing great downward pressure.Therefore,the development of international regional economic mutual assistance,which is a warm-blooded group,has been placed more expectations,and negotiations on China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Zone have returned to political vision of the three countries.With a view to the future"China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Zone",based on the analysis of current situation of trade cooperation among China,Japan and South Korea,this paper selects the data of goods trade from 2010 to 2019.The ESI index is used to calculate the intensity(characteristics)of trade competition among countries,and then the GTAP model is used to test the trade effect of establishing China-Japan-ROK Free Trade Zone.The test results show that the trade effects of China,Japan and South Korea are all positively correlated.Therefore,in order to deal with the international supply chain crisis,it is necessary to speed up the negotiation of free trade zone contracting.