基于城市面板数据的PM2.5对公共健康的影响

Influence of PM2.5 pollution on public health based on urban panel data

基于Grossman健康生产函数,利用2008~2017年全国280个城市的面板数据,以PM2.5为空气污染的代表指标,探讨中国空气污染与公共健康之间的动态关系,考虑到公共健康的空间效应,采用空间计量模型进行实证研究.结果表明,在未考虑空间效应的情况下,PM2.5浓度每增加1%,城市总人口死亡率增加0.040%;考虑空间效应后,PM2.5浓度每增加1%,城市总人口死亡率增加0.0606%.PM2.5污染对公共健康具有显著的负面影响,由于存在空间溢出效应,PM2.5污染对城市公共健康水平的影响程度增加,表明忽视空间相关性的存在,会低估PM2.5污染对公众健康的影响;而经济发展水平的提高以及产业结构的调整对公共健康有较强的改善作用.

Based on the Grossman health production function and panel data of 280cities in China from 2008 to 2017,this paper took PM2.5 as the proxy of air pollution to explore the dynamic relationship between air pollution and public health in China.Considering the spatial effect of public health,the spatial econometric models were used for empirical research.The results showed that,without considering the spatial effects,a 1%increment on PM2.5 concentration could generate about 0.040%increase of the total mortality of population;after considering the spatial effects,for every 1%increase in PM2.5 concentration,the total mortality of population would increase by 0.0606%.PM2.5 pollution had a significant negative impact on public health.Due to the spatial spillover effect,the impact of PM2.5 pollution on the level of urban public health has increased,this showed that ignoring the existence of spatial correlation would result in underestimating the impact of PM2.5 pollution on public health;and the improvement of economic development and the adjustment of industrial structure had a strong role in improving public health.