基于决策试行与评价实验室-Choquet积分的航班运行风险评价

Flight Operation Risk Assessment Based on Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Choquet Integral

为提高航空公司安全管理水平,提出一种基于决策试行与评价实验室和Choquet积分耦合的方法对航空公司航班运行风险进行评价。首先在识别航班运行风险因素的基础上,利用DEMATEL方法计算因素的综合影响矩阵。利用综合影响矩阵分别计算因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度和原因度,确定因素的因果属性并确定关键因素。在利用决策试验和评价实验室方法计算得到关键风险因素的基础上,利用Choquet积分构建风险评价模型对航空公司航班运行风险进行综合评价。结果表明:该风险评价模型能够消除风险因素之间的关联性,实现了航空公司航班运行风险的合理、有效评价。

In order to improve the safety management level of airlines,a method based on decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)and Choquet integral coupling was proposed to evaluate the flight operation risk of airlines.Firstly,on the basis of identifying the flight operation risk factors of airline,the DEMATEL method was used to calculate the comprehensive impact matrix of factors.The comprehensive impact matrix was used to calculate the degree of impact,being impacted,centrality and the cause of the factors,and to determine the causal attributes of the factors and the key factors.Based on the key risk factors calculated by the DEMATEL method,the risk evaluation model was built by using Choquet integral to evaluate the flight operation risk of airlines comprehensively.The results show that the risk assessment model can eliminate the correlation between risk factors and achieve a reasonable and effective evaluation of airline flight operation risk.