基于AFC数据的体育赛事周边轨道站点短时客流预测

Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction of Metro Stations around Sports Events Based on AFC Data

针对体育赛事活动的大规模人群的集散极易引发大客流拥堵问题.收集北京市3年的体育赛事数据及相应的AFC刷卡数据,分析体育赛事活动举办对周边轨道站点客流影响特点,阐述日期属性、活动类型、活动前后时段、天气、主客场队伍等因素对车站诱增客流的影响.基于此构建梯度下降决策树(GBDT)预测模型.经验证发现:东大桥、东四十条及团结湖15 min出站客流,预测平均精度分别为93.67%、90.76%、89.61%,可对大型活动期间轨道交通应急方案及客流疏解方案的制定提供理论支撑.

The sport events lead to the concentration of people in the region,which not only causes great pressure on the surrounding infrastructure,but also gives rise to group events easily.This paper collects the sports event information and AFC date for nearly three years,and analyzes the traffic characteristics around the sport events.It then explores the date attribute,activity type,weather,home and away teams which as the number of reported several influence factors on the influence of induced passenger flow at the station.Based on this,a gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)prediction model is established and verified by an activity.The prediction results show that the average prediction accuracy of passenger flow out of Dongdaqiao,Dongsishitiao and Tuanjiehu station in 15 minutes is 93.67%,90.76%and 89.61%,respectively.This study can provide theoretical support for the formulation of metro emergency plan and passenger flow evacuation plan during large-scale activities.