农地休耕如何影响农户收入?--基于西北休耕试点区1240个农户面板数据的实证

How Does Farmland Fallow Affect Rural Households’Income?An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data Collected from 1240 Households in the Northwest Fallow Pilot Areas

本文基于甘肃省1240个农户的两期面板微观数据,利用西北生态严重退化区休耕试点政策作为准实验,采用双重差分法识别农地休耕对农户收入的影响,并进一步探究这一影响的作用机制与异质性。研究发现,农地休耕可使农户年总收入提高0.4978万元,增幅为10.35%,这一效应,在剔除休耕补贴后依然存在,但在不同收入水平的农户群体间存在差异,突出表现为“益富不益贫”的特点。作用机制分析表明,农地休耕主要通过提高转移性收入的直接作用和促进非农就业由此提高非农收入的间接作用两条途径来促进农户增收,且以增加的非农收入贡献度最大。其中,非农收入的提高主要源于农户外地务工人数和收入增加;休耕减少了种植业收入,但难以通过口粮补贴来完全弥补这一收入损失,增加的社保收入和亲人馈赠收入是损失弥补的关键;休耕不会影响农户资产性收入,也不存在促进畜牧业收入增加的农业结构调整效应。研究还发现,农地休耕的增收效应在不同参与程度和不同人力资本禀赋的农户群体间均存在差异。

Based on the panel micro data of 1240 farmers in Gansu Province,this article uses a DID method to identify the impact of farmland fallow on farmers’ income by using fallow pilot policy in the seriously degraded ecological areas of Northwest China as a quasi-experiment,and further explores the mechanism and heterogeneity of this impact.The results show that the total annual income of farmers can be increased by 4978 Yuan,an increase of 10.35%.This effect still exists after eliminating the fallow subsidy,but there are differences among different income groups,which can be characterized by "benefiting the rich but not benefiting the poor".An analysis of the impact mechanism shows that farmland fallow improve the total household income mainly through two ways,a direct effect of raising transfer income and an indirect effect of raising off-farm income by squeezing out off-farm employments,and the contribution of increased off-farm income is the largest.Among them,the increase in off-farm income is mainly due to the increase of the number of migrant workers and income.Farmland fallow reduces crop income,but it is difficult to fully make up for this income loss through fallow subsidies.The increase of social security income and family gift income is the key to make up for the loss.Farmland fallow does not affect famers’ asset income,and there is no agricultural structural adjustment to promote the increase of livestock income effect.This study also finds that the income-enhancing effects of fallow farmland can be varied among farmers with different levels of participation and with different human capital endowment.