中轨道导航星座长期演化安全性分析

Security Analysis for Long-Term Evolution of Medium Earth Orbit Navigation Satellite Constellation

针对中轨道导航卫星运动状态长期计算更新问题,分析了中轨道区域导航卫星所受摄动力的特点,建立了摄动力计算模型。通过用半分析方法消除短周期项和Adams-Cowell积分器对轨道根数的外推,迅速获得相对准确的轨道状态。将轨道根数演化结果与STK软件中的LOP工具进行对比,仿真结果验证了轨道长期预报模型的精度满足要求。另外,对中轨道区域四大全球卫星导航系统所发射的卫星及上面级进行100年长期演化,分析了废弃卫星及上面级对自身及其它全球卫星导航系统安全运行的影响。

Regarding the long-term orbit calculation and update for operation states of medium earth orbit navigation satellites,the characteristics of the perturbation of the satellites are firstly analyzed in the medium earth orbit region,and the perturbation computation model is established.Then,short period term is eliminated by using semianalytic method and the orbital elements are extrapolated by Adams-Cowell integrator to obtain a relatively accurate orbit state quickly.Secondly,the evolution results of the orbital elements are compared with the LOP tool in the STK software.The simulation results show that the accuracy of the long-term orbit prediction model fulfills the requirements.Finally,the navigation satellites’orbit is propagated for 100 years,and the influence of the disposed satellites and upper stages on the safe operation of the global satellite navigation system is analyzed.