武汉市人口老龄化时空格局与养老服务可达性分析

An Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Aging Population and Accessibility of Elderly Services in Wuhan

基于2010年人口普查、2015年实有人口和地理国情监测数据,运用空间自相关分析等方法,研究武汉市人口老龄化空间分布特征与变化趋势;使用改进的两步移动搜索法,测算武汉市养老服务可达性;结合两者结果,研究武汉市人口老龄化和养老服务可达性的空间耦合关系。研究发现:(1)武汉市人口老龄化从市中心到外围呈高-低-高三环分布;(2)老龄化空间聚集效应加强,人口老龄化呈现向城市中心聚集趋势;(3)养老服务可达性空间差异较大,呈西北向东南递减的趋势;(4)养老服务可达性与人口老龄化空间分布相关性较小。

Based on the 2010 census, 2015 population monitoring data, this paper uses spatial autocorrelation analysis methods to study the spatial distribution characteristics and trends of population aging in Wuhan, and uses the improved two step floating catchment area method(2 SFCA) to calculate the accessibility of the elderly services in Wuhan. Then, the spatial-temporal coupling relationship between aging population and accessibility of old-age services has been studied. The results show that:(1)the population aging in Wuhan city from the center of the city to the periphery presents a high-low-high three-ring distribution;(2)the spatial agglomeration effect of aging is strengthened, and the population aging shows a trend of agglomeration to the city center;(3)the spatial difference of the accessibility of pension services is large, with a ecreasing trend from northwest to Southeast;(4)The accessibility of old-age services has little correlation with the spatial distribution of population aging.