全球林产品空间结构与比较优势的动态演变--兼论我国林产品比较优势培育目标的选择

Spatial Structure of Global Forest Products and Dynamic Evolution of Comparative Advantage--Discussion on the Selection of Cultivating Target of Chinese Forest Products Comparative Advantage

【目的】通过构建全球林产品空间检验全球林产品空间结构变化与比较优势动态演变之间是否存在动态关联,尝试从微观视角——产品视角对我国林产品比较优势的培育进行初步探析。【方法】基于产品空间结构理论构建全球林产品空间,采用1992—2017年43个主要林产品贸易国的林产品贸易数据,运用R软件测算72种林产品中两两林产品间的邻近度,对全球林产品空间分布的异质性结构予以验证,并通过建立高维面板数据模型进一步检验全球林产品空间分布结构与一国林产品比较优势动态演变之间是否存在关联性;在此基础上对潜在比较优势林产品的产品密度予以排序,选择我国林产品贸易比较优势的培育目标。【结果】从全球林产品空间组成来看,处于密集区域的主要是木质林产品中的木制品类和家具类;在密集区域的前10位产品中没有发现非木质林产品,但在稀疏区域后10位商品除回收纸类和木浆类产品外都是非木质林产品;产品密度与产品比较优势之间存在显著的正相关关系且在时间序列中保持稳定;在未来一段时期内我国处于比较劣势的林产品实现到比较优势转化的可能性依据其产品密度的排序由高到低逐步降低。【结论】全球林产品空间中两两林产品间的距离是不相等的,全球林产品空间呈现出异质且不均衡的总体特征;一国具有潜在比较优势的林产品与现有比较优势产品集之间的距离越近,越容易实现从潜在比较优势到比较优势的转化;对比较劣势的林产品密度进行排序有助于我国政府或主管机关对林产品贸易实施引导,可结合我国林产品贸易的综合实践及全球林产品贸易的环境变化根据潜在比较优势林产品的密度排序来选择比较优势培育目标;掌握和运用全球林产品空间结构与林产品比较优势变动之间的相关关系,一国的主管机关或政策制定部门可在引导本国林产品比较优势变动方面有所作为并取得较好的政策实效。

【Objective】Through the establishment of global forest product space to test whether there is a dynamic correlation between the spatial structural change of global forest products and the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage,this paper attempts to make a preliminary analysis of the cultivation target of China’s comparative advantage of forest products from the perspective of microcosmic product.【Method】Based on the theory of product spatial structure,the global forest product space was constructed.Using the forest product trade data of 43 major forest product trading countries from 1992 to 2017,the R software was used to measure the proximity between two forest products in 72 forest products,and the heterogeneity structure of global forest product spatial distribution was verified,and a high dimensional panel data model was established to further examine the relationship between the spatial distribution structure of global forest products and the dynamic evolution of comparative advantage of a country’s forest products;On this basis,the density of forest products with potential comparative advantage was ranked to choose the cultivation goal of the comparative advantage of China’s forest products trade.【Result】From the perspective of the spatial composition of global forest products,the wood products and furniture are mainly in dense areas;Non-wood forest products are not found in the top 10 products in the dense area,but in the sparse area,the ten commodities are non-wood forest products except recycled paper and wood pulp products;There is a significant positive correlation between product density and product comparative advantage,which is stable in time series.In the future,the possibility of conversion from forest products in comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage will be gradually reduced from high to low according to the ranking of product density.【Conclusion】The distance between two forest products in the global forest product space is not equal,and the global forest product space is heterogeneous and unbalanced;The closer the distance between the forest product with potential comparative advantage and the existing comparative advantage product set,the easier it is to realize the transformation from potential to actual comparative advantage;Ranking the density of forest product comparative disadvantage can guide the trade of forest products for government or competent authorities,combine the comprehensive practice of forest product trade of China and the environmental changes of global forest product trade,and finally achieve the policy objectives through the cultivation of comparative advantage forest products;The spatial structure of global forest products is closely related to the change of comparative advantage of forest products.If the competent authority or policy-making department follow this inherent law to guide the changes in the comparative advantage of its forest products,it would have a better policy effectiveness.