结合台风全路径模拟的混合气候极值风速估计

Extreme wind speed estimation of mixed climate combined with typhoon full path simulation

为了合理确定混合风气候地区的结构抗风设计风速,提出一种结合台风全路径模拟技术的混合气候极值风速估计方法。基于CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集,采用Vickery经验回归模型建立了适用于西北太平洋海域的台风全路径模型,并针对西北太平洋局部区域进行了模型参数修正,生成了符合历史样本特征的100 000年台风路径及强度随机样本。应用Yan Meng模型进行风场模拟并通过极值统计分析确定了中国东南沿海10座城市的重现期台风极值风速。结合杭州地区的近地良态风实测数据,估计得到了杭州地区混合气候重现期极值风速。结果表明,混合气候地区的设计风速估计应考虑不同气候模式的影响。采用该方法,可给出偏于保守的混合气候极值风速估计值。

In order to reasonably determine the wind-resistant design wind speed in mixed climate area, an extreme wind speed estimation method in mixed climate area based on typhoon full pathsimulation was proposed.Based on the best-path dataset of CMA-STI tropical cyclones, a typhoon full-path model suitable for northwest Pacific Ocean area was established by using Vickery empirical regression model. The model parameters were modified for local area of northwest Pacific Ocean to generate 100 000-year random samples of typhoon track and intensity in line with characteristics of historical samples. The wind field was simulated with Yan Meng model, and based on statistical analysis of extreme value, extreme wind speeds of typhoon in return period of 10 cities along southeast coast of China were determined. Combined with the measured data of good wind near ground in Hangzhou area, extreme wind speedsin mixed climate return period of Hangzhou area were estimated. Results showed that effects of different climate models should be considered in the design wind speed estimation of mixed climate regions;using the proposed method, a conservative estimation of extreme wind speed of mixed climate can be given.