阿富汗战后重建面临的困境及出路——以政治机会理论为视阈的分析

The Difficulties and Outlets of Afghanistan’s Post-war Reconstruction:On the Theory of Political Opportunity

2020年2月29日美国与阿富汗塔利班在卡塔尔首都多哈签署和平协议,历时近20年的阿富汗战争终于显现了走向终点的迹象。尽管该协议的实施还存在诸多障碍和不确定因素,但是毕竟为这个饱受战乱困扰的国家带来了一丝和平的曙光。国内外一系列复杂因素综合作用下美国抛开阿富汗政府与塔利班组织谈判引发国际社会的广泛关注。阿富汗战后重建是在该国现代民族国家建构尚未完成和国家治理面临一系列困境的大背景下展开的。当前,阿富汗战后重建依旧存在许多亟待破解的难题:政治制度运转效率较低、社会整合尚未实现、经济重建困难重重等等。同时还面临美国、伊朗、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦等地区国家介入的外部因素,民族宗教部落矛盾重重、现政府治理能力差和民众国家认同远弱于部落认同等内部因素的困扰。国内外学界已对阿富汗重建面临的困境问题提出了不同的解决方案。政治机会结构理论是一种解释社会发展中不同民族国家的政治力量妥协与较量的研究方法,为研究"后冲突时代"族群和宗教间的冲突提供了一种非常有用的视角。政治机会结构理论主要关注社会运动主体(经常是抗议者)与抗议对象(主要是权威政府)之间互动的形式,及其对社会运动的生成与发展造成的影响和结果。这一理论在阿富汗战后重建的出路上提供了很好的解释力。

On February 29,2019,the United States and Afghanistan signed a peace agreement in Doha,the capital of Qatar.The war in Afghanistan that lasted for nearly 19 years finally showed signs of reaching its end.Although there are still many obstacles and uncertain factors in the implementation of the agreement,after all,it has brought a glimmer of peace to this war-torn country.At present,there are still many difficult problems in Afghanistan’s post-war reconstruction:the efficiency of the political system is low,social integration has not yet been achieved,economic reconstruction is still difficult,and so on.At the same time,it is also faced with external factors such as U.S.dominance,geopolitical games,and the intervention of countries like Iran,Russia,Pakistan and others in this region,the conflicts between ethnic and religious tribes,the lack of government governance capabilities,and the public’s national identity is far weaker than tribal identity.The academic circles at home and abroad have put forward different solutions to the dilemma faced by the reconstruction of Afghanistan.The theory of political opportunity structure mainly focuses on the form of interaction between the main body of social movement(often protesters)and the object of protest(mainly authoritative government),and its influence and results on the generation and development of social movements.This theory also provides a good explanation for the way out of Afghanistan’s post-war reconstruction.