消费者信心、资产财富与居民消费行为——基于家庭资产配置结构的解释

Consumers’ Confidence, Asset Wealth and Residents’ Consumption Behavior: An Explanation Based on Household Asset Allocation Structure

近年来,我国居民的家庭财富不断增加,而消费却持续低迷。首先,从宏观角度出发,将消费者信心加入资产—消费模型分析消费者信心与资产财富对居民消费行为的影响。研究发现:消费者信心使金融资产财富对城镇居民总消费的影响由负向抑制转为正向促进,却增强了房产财富对城镇居民总消费的负向抑制作用,消费者信心与资产财富对不同消费项目的作用存在差异。基于要素市场理论,从微观层面的家庭资产配置结构角度做进一步分析,结果表明家庭资产配置结构越扭曲,即房产占比越高,越不利于家庭消费。因此,推进土地要素市场化改革,促进资产市场发展,能够从根本上消除导致房价上涨的因素,改善家庭资产配置结构,稳定经济给居民创造良好的预期,提升居民消费水平。

In recent years, the household assets of the residents in China are continuously increasing, while the downturn of their consumption has continued. Starting from the macro-perspective, this paper firstly puts consumers’ confidence into the asset-consumption model to analyze the impact of consumers’ confidence and asset wealth on residents’ consumption behavior. The findings show that consumers’ confidence can turn the impact of financial asset wealth on the total consumption of urban residents from negative inhibition into positive promotion, however, it will strengthen the negative inhibitory effect of housing wealth on the total consumption of urban residents;consumers’ confidence and asset wealth have different effects on different consumption items. Then, based on the theory of factor market, it makes a further analysis from the perspective of household asset allocation at the micro level. The findings indicate that the more distorted the household asset allocation structure is, i.e., the higher the proportion of real estate is, the more disadvantages to household consumption.Therefore, to speed up the land factor marketization reform and to promote the development of asset market can fundamentally eliminate the factors leading to the rising of housing prices, improve the structure of household asset allocation, stabilize the economy and create the fine expectation for the residents, and improve the residents’ consumption level.