国家天然气安全评价指标体系的构建与应用

Construction and application of national natural gas security indicator system

围绕如何测度并改善天然气安全这一核心议题,引入并修正了APERC能源安全"4A"分析框架,运用层次分析法与德尔斐法,构建了天然气安全评价指标体系,对主要天然气净进口国和净出口国的天然气安全状况进行了量化评估。评估发现:(1)天然气安全四维度(资源可利用性、经济可承受性、贸易可获得性与环境可接受性)的不可或缺性意味着综合表现优异的国家安全水平更高;(2)8个二级指标中,可采储量、个体可承受性等指标的权重更大;(3)天然气净出口国在资源可利用性、经济可承受性和贸易可获得性方面有优势,整体表现优于进口国。就中国而言,可从加快资源开发、完善市场机制、扩大进口渠道和提高资源利用效率四个方面提高天然气安全水平。

In order to assess the situation of natural gas security in major countries, this study introduces and revises APERC’s 4A Energy Security to construct a scientific and quantifiable natural gas security indicator system by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Delphi method. The study draws the following conclusions.(1) The countries ranking at the top of natural gas security list are natural gas exporters with excellent performance in four dimensions(Availability, Accessibility, Acceptability, and Affordability).(2) The indicators of recoverable reserves of natural gas and affordability of consumers are more important than the other six indicators.(3) Compared with importers, natural gas export countries have obvious advantages in Availability, Affordability and Accessibility. Finally, according to the main findings in this research, China should make efforts to develop its natural gas industry, improve market mechanism, diversify its import sources, and efficiently utilize natural gas resources.