复杂网络视角下世界石油流动的竞合态势演变及对中国石油合作的启示

The evolution of competition and cooperation in world crude oil flows from the perspective of complex networks and its enlightenment to China’s oil cooperation

世界石油流动的规模和复杂性日益增加,从复杂网络分析视角考察石油流动中主要贸易国及其所处地缘区之间的相对地位及变动,并分析中国在其中的竞合关系,有利于从与出口地缘区合作和与进口地缘区合作两个方面,全面审视中国石油合作的总体格局、重点合作国家和可能的模式创新。研究结果表明:(1)世界石油流动仍由主要出口地缘区主导,逐步演变为俄罗斯-中亚、美国-加拿大和中东三足鼎立的出口竞争格局,但出口地缘区的多元化和地位相对变动也为进口国调整合作关系提供了机遇;(2)亚太地区逐步成为世界石油流动的竞合焦点,但由于区内大国缺乏互济交流,降低了地区的整体核心地位和对石油流动的调控力,中国也深陷进口分散化、出口大国博弈和进口大国制衡三大困境中;(3)中国应与核心出口地缘区重点合作,与其他出口地缘区稳定合作并创新合作模式,与亚太其他进口国基于进口份额协调机制、来源错位竞争机制和国际贸易中心分工协作机制,开展区内互济交流合作,以改善中国在世界石油流动格局中的竞合环境,保障石油供需平衡、降低供给风险。

The scale and complexity of world crude oil flows are increasing. From the perspective of complex network analysis, we examine the relative status and their changes of the major trading countries and their corresponding geopolitical regions, and analyze the competition and cooperation between China and these geopolitical regions, which are conducive to a comprehensive review of the overall pattern, key cooperation countries, and possible model innovation of China’s oil cooperation in terms of cooperation with exporting and importing geopolitical regions. The results show that:(1) World crude oil flows are still dominated by the main export geopolitical regions, and gradually evolved into the three dimensional competition patterns of Russia-Central Asia, the United States-Canada and the Middle East. However, the diversification and relative status changes of the exporting geopolitical regions also provide opportunities for the importing countries to adjust their cooperative relations.(2) The Asia-Pacific region has gradually become the focus of the competition and cooperation in the world crude oil flows. However, due to the lack of mutual exchange among the major importing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the overall status of the region and its control over the world crude oil flows have been lowered. Correspondingly,China is deeply trapped in the three major dilemmas of import decentralization, the game of major exporting countries and the check and balance of major importing countries.(3) In terms of cooperation with exporting geopolitical regions, China should focus on strengthening multilateral cooperation with Russia-Central Asia geopolitical region, appropriately strengthen bilateral cooperation with United States-Canada geopolitical region, and consolidate and balance diversified cooperation with the Middle East geopolitical region;as for Africa and Latin America, China should stabilize the existing cooperation and innovate the cooperation mode, such as bringing the output of China’s oil investment in Africa to the international market, and encouraging China Petroleum Purchase Federation of Independent Refinery to cooperate with large oil trading companies to enter the Latin American oil market. In terms of cooperation with importing geopolitical regions, China should conduct internal mutual exchanges with importing countries in the Asia-Pacific region based on the import share coordination mechanism, diverse-source competition mechanism and the division and cooperation mechanism of the international trade center. The above oil cooperation is conducive to improving China’s competition and cooperation environment in the world crude oil flows,ensuring the balance of oil supply and demand, and reducing supply risks.