基于多层次模糊协调决策法的城市燃气管网风险评估

Risk Assessment of Urban Gas Pipeline Network Based on Multi-level Fuzzy Coordinated Decision Method

以扬州市燃气管网系统为例,建立了燃气管网系统风险评估指标体系。通过综合运用多层次评判模型和模糊协调决策法,对城市燃气管网失效可能性进行风险评估。该方法根据贴近度与择近原则,找出每层因素的最佳权重分配方案,用所求最佳权重向量对最新的单因素评判矩阵作两级综合评判,从而得到风险等级的量化值。同时根据样本标准差公式,对比了六种贴近度计算方法在具体综合风险评判中的分辨率高低,事实证明该算法运算相对简单,可操作性强,效果较好,可在城市燃气管网风险评估中推广应用。

Taking the gas pipeline network system of Yangzhou City as an example,a risk assessment index system for the gas pipeline network system has been established.Through the comprehensive use of multi-level evaluation models and fuzzy coordination decision-making methods,risk assessment of the possibility of failure of the urban gas pipeline network is carried out.According to the principle of closeness and closeness,the method finds the optimal weight distribution plan of each factor,and uses the optimal weight vector to make a two-level comprehensive evaluation on the latest single factor evaluation matrix,thereby obtaining the quantitative value of the risk level.At the same time,according to the sample standard deviation formula,the resolution of the six closeness calculation methods in the specific comprehensive risk assessment is compared.Facts have proved that the algorithm is relatively simple in operation,strong in operability,and good in effect.It can be used in urban gas pipeline network risks.Promote the application during the evaluation.