RCEP的起源、内容特征与经济影响评估

The Origin,Content Characteristics and Economic Impact Assessment of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

本文详细梳理了东亚经济体一体化的发展与RCEP的起源及签署过程,细致分析了RCEP的条款内容及特征,认为RCEP条款代表着在WTO原则基础上对更高水平自贸规则的探索与实践。在此基础上,详细评估了RCEP签署对主要成员国和世界主要国家的福利和贸易效应。多情形对比分析显示RCEP能显著提高成员国的福利水平,并显著推动成员国贸易的繁荣。尤其对于中国而言,RCEP能够显著对冲中美贸易摩擦升级的冲击,同时也强化了中国在东亚区域价值链的地位。同时,评估结果还显示,未来印度的加入将进一步增进中日韩以及东盟的经济收益。值得关注的是,RCEP在某些领域仍然与CPTPP所带表的新一代贸易规则存在一定差距,未来中国还需进一步深入实施自由贸易区战略,为国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局提供持久的动力。

This article combs the development of East Asian economic integration and the origin and signing process of RCEP,analyzes the content and characteristics of RCEP clauses in detail,and proposes that RCEP clauses represent the exploration and practice of higher-level free trade rules based on WTO principles.On this basis,we have precisely evaluated the welfare and trade effects of RCEP signing on major member states and major countries in the world.A comparative analysis of multiple scenarios shows that RCEP will significantly improve the welfare of member states and significantly promote the prosperity of member states'trade.For China especially,RCEP can significantly hedge the impact of the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and at the same time strengthen China's position in the East Asian regional value chain.At the same time,the evaluation results also show that the future accession of India will further increase the economic benefits of China,Japan,South Korea and ASEAN.It is worth noting that in some areas,RCEP still has a certain gap with the new-generation trade rules of CPTPP.In the future,China will need to further implement the free trade zone strategy,which is a new development pattern that promotes the mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles to provide lasting power.