世界经济增长中的中国贡献:基于新框架的测算

China’s Contribution in World Economic Growth: Measurement Based on New Framework

改革开放以来,得益于经济全球化的深度演进,中国开放发展获得了巨大成功,与此同时,伴随经济体量的不断增大及其参与全球价值链分工程度的不断提升,中国在世界经济中的影响力也日益提升,并成为经济全球化的重要"贡献者"。目前理论和实践部门认识主要停留在中国经济增长率对世界经济平均增长率的"边际贡献"上,缺乏对世界各国产出增长实际带动作用的理论和经验分析。鉴于此,文章从全球价值链分工视角出发,基于全球投入产出模型推演了能够测度一国总产出增长对世界其他国家和地区产出增长的拉动系数及其实际带动量的数理模型。在此基础上,文章再利用WIOD提供的基础数据测算了中国对世界总产出增长的实际贡献。结果表明,无论是从整体层面还是从国别和地区层面看,中国在世界经济增长中作出了巨大贡献,并呈日益提升的发展趋势,当然对于不同国家和地区表现出异质性影响。为理解"中国是经济全球化受益者,更是贡献者"的本质提供了科学的经验证据。

Since the reform and opening up,China has benefited from the in-dpeth evolution of economic glob alisation and achieved tremendous success in economic growth. At the same time,as China’s participation in the global value chain continues to increase along with the scale of its economy,China gains more clout in the world economy,becoming an important contributor to economic globalization. However,the academia and the administration currently focus on the marginal contribution of China’ s economic growth rate to the average growth rate of the world economy,which considers a lack theoretical and empirical analysis of the practical impetus all over the world. Under such situation,this article starts from the perspective of the division of labor in the global value chain,and derives a mathematical model based on the global input-output model that can measure the pulling coefficient of a country’s total output growth to the output growth of other countries and regions in the world. In this scenario,this article uses the basic data provided by WIOD to estimate China’s actual contribution to the growth of world output. The results show that,regardless of whether it is from the aggregate or regional level,China has made a huge contribution to world economic growth along with an increasing development trend. It also shows heterogeneous effects on different countries and regions. The research provides scientific empirical evidence for understanding the nature of " China is a beneficiary and a contributor to economic globalization".