金融发展、FDI溢出与经济增长效率:基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证研究

Financial Development,FDI Spillover and Economic Growth Efficiency: An Empirical Study of the Countries Along the "One Belt and One Road"

"一带一路"沿线发展中经济体的金融发展对其吸收外商直接投资、推动经济增长具有重要影响。文章基于2007~2017年"一带一路"沿线56个国家的动态面板数据,运用系统GMM实证方法从金融深化和金融效率两个维度分析金融发展和FDI溢出对经济增长效率的影响。结果显示,"一带一路"沿线国家的金融深化显著促进经济增长,同时FDI通过技术溢出效应和资本积累效应强化了金融发展对经济增长的促进作用。但是受金融效率普遍不高的制约,金融效率对经济增长的促进作用并未有效发挥,FDI对经济增长溢出效应的大小也取决于该国金融发展水平。从分样本看,资源禀赋丰富的发展中国家,由于金融体系不完善和金融效率低下导致FDI的溢出效应受到限制,使得金融效率与FDI相互制约,对经济增长具有抑制作用。因此,为更好发挥金融发展对经济增长的促进作用,"一带一路"沿线的发展中国家应加快金融体系建设进程,通过提高金融效率,强化FDI溢出对经济增长的促进效应,推动经济增长。

In the developing economies along Belt and Road Initiative,financial development has an important impact on the absorption of foreign direct investment and the promotion of economic growth. Based on the dynamic panel data of 56 countries along Belt and Road Initiative from 2007 to 2017,this paper uses systematic GMM empirical method to analyze the impact of financial development and FDI spillover on economic growth efficiency from two dimensions of financial deepening and financial efficiency. The results show that the financial deepening of the countries along the " Belt and Road Initiative" has significantly promoted economic growth,while FDI has strengthened the role of financial development in promoting economic growth through technology spillover effects and capital accumulation effects. Due to the relatively low financial efficiency in these countries,the advantages of financial efficiency for economic growth has not been effectively exploited. Meanwhile,the spillover effect of FDI on economic growth also depends on the level of financial development in the country. From the sample point of view,due to the imperfect financial system and low financial efficiency in developing countries with rich resource endowment,the spillover effect of FDI is limited,which leads to mutual restriction between financial efficiency and FDI inhibit economic growth. Therefore,in order to better play the role of financial development in promoting economic growth,developing countries along the " Belt and Road Initiative" should accelerate the process of building the financial system and increase the financial efficiency,which would strengthen the spillover effect of FDI in order to achieve higher economic growth.