2020年11月中国大陆需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in the mainland of China, November 2020

目的评估2020年11月在我国大陆地区发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果总体上,预计11月突发公共卫生事件的报告数将较10月有所上升。全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情此起彼伏、持续蔓延,我国境内发生境外输入及续发本地传播风险持续存在,但在可控范围内。自11月下旬起,流行性感冒将出现季节性升高。11月进入冬季采暖季节,非职业性一氧化碳中毒事件将进入高发时期。结论需要对新型冠状病毒肺炎予以特别关注,对季节性流感和非职业性一氧化碳中毒予以一般关注。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies, both the indigenous ones and the imported ones,which might occur in the mainland of China in November 2020. Methods An internet based expert counsel was conducted to analyze the incidence data of public health emergencies reported both at home and abroad and the surveillance data of priority communicable diseases in China reported through different channels, and the experts in all provincial centers for disease control and prevention attended this conference through video terminal. Results Generally speaking, it is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies would be higher in November than in October. At present, the global coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) pandemic is still ongoing out of control. The risk of imported or secondary COVID-19 would continue to exist in China, but it would be controllable. The activity of seasonal influenza would increase from late November.In November, the incidence of non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning would increase due to coal-firing heating as the approaching of winter. Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19, and general attention should be paid to seasonal influenza and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning.