阜阳市天然气的二维微分方程模型研究

Study on Two-Dimensional Differential Equation Model of Natural Gas in Fuyang City

本文研究城市天然气能源系统模型,建立基于城市天然气能源消耗和城市GDP值的二维微分方程模型。定量讨论天然气消耗量与城市GDP的演化关系。以安徽省阜阳市为例,为确定系统模型参数,运用统计检验和估计方法,对阜阳市天然气经济增长系数和天然气需求最大缺口进行了预测和估计。对统计数据进行曲线拟合,得到阜阳市GDP对天然气发展的影响系数和天然气消费对GDP发展的影响系数。通过对系统matlab仿真,得出系统相图和天然气能源强度图。由系统稳定性和天然气能源强度分析表明GDP的发展需要大量使用天然气能源,但不能使用过多和过少,有一定的数量范围要求。

This paper studies the urban natural gas energy system model and establishes a two-dimensional differential equation model based on urban natural gas energy consumption and urban GDP value.The evolutionary relationship between natural gas consumption and urban GDP is discussed quantitatively.Taking Fuyang city of Anhui Province as an example,the economic growth coefficient of natural gas and the maximum gap of natural gas demand in Fuyang city were predicted and estimated by using statistical test and estimation method to determine the parameters of the system model.By curve fitting the statistical data,the influence coefficient of Fuyang GDP on the development of natural gas and the influence coefficient of natural gas consumption on the development of GDP were obtained.Through the system MATLAB simulation,the system phase diagram and natural gas energy intensity diagram.The analysis of system stability and natural gas energy intensity shows that the development of GDP needs to use a large amount of natural gas energy,but it cannot use too much or too little.