上海市卫生总费用GM(1,N)模型构建

Construction of GM(1,N)Model of Total Health Expenditure in Shanghai

目的分析上海市卫生总费用的影响因素,探析多因素GM(1,N)模型的适用性。方法利用灰色关联分析和多因素GM(1,N)模型进行分析。结果上海市卫生总费用的影响因素是医疗卫生机构数、诊疗人次、入院人数、生产总值、人均GDP、居民消费水平和人均个人存款;构建的GM(1,N)模型精度评价为优秀,可以利用模型进行拟合预测。结论灰色关联分析和多因素GM(1,N)模型适用于上海市卫生总费用研究;上海市政府在严格控制卫生机构扩大化的基础上,积极进行健康宣讲活动,增强广大人群健康意识,减少大病风险经济隐患,从而控制卫生总费用不合理增长。此外,盘活存量卫生资源,提升资源配置管理水平,以提高卫生服务利用的公平性和可及性。

Objective To analyze the influencing factors of total health expenditure in Shanghai,and to analyze the applicability of multi-factor GM(1,N)model.Methods Grey correlation analysis and multi-factor GM(1,N)model were used for analysis.Results The influencing factors of total health expenditure in Shanghai were the number of medical and health institutions,the number of medical treatments,the number of hospital ad⁃missions,the total production value,the per capita GDP,the consumption level of residents and the per capita per⁃sonal deposits.The accuracy of the constructed GM(1,N)model was excellent.The model can be used for fitting prediction.Conclusion The Grey correlation analysis and multi-factor GM(1,N)model are applicable to the study of total health expenditure in Shanghai;the government should strictly control the expansion of health institu⁃tions and introduce more policies to control the unreasonable increase in health costs.Moreover,it should make good use of the stock of health resources,and improve resource allocation management,so as to improve the fairness andaccessibility of health service.