气候变化对西辽河流域生态水文过程的影响

Impact of Climate Change on Eco-hydrological Process in Xiliaohe River Basin

采用SDSM模型、BIOME-BGC模型和HSPF水文模型,研究气候变化对西辽河流域水文和生态系统的影响。研究表明,未来90年,该地区日最高和最低气温以及蒸散量均表现出上升趋势,日降水和地表径流量表现出下降趋势。日最高和最低温度、日降水量、日蒸散量和地表径流量每10年的变化率在A2情境下分别为0.46℃、0.45℃、-3.68 mm/10 a、15.83 mm/10 a和-0.05 m 3/s,在B2情景下分别为0.26℃、0.26℃、-4.99 mm/10 a,9.36 mm/10 a和-0.04 m 3/s,以期为区域水资源管理提供参考。

In this paper,SDSM model,BIOME-BGC model and HSPF hydrological model are used to study the impacts of climate change on hydrology and ecosystem in Xiliao River Basin.Research shows that in the next 90 years,the daily maximum and minimum temperatures and evapotranspiration in the region will show an upward trend,while the daily precipitation and surface runoff will show a downward trend.The change rates of daily maximum and minimum temperature,daily precipitation,daily evapotranspiration and surface runoff per decade are 0.46℃,0.45℃,-3.68 mm/10 a,15.83 mm/10 a and 0.05 m 3/s respectively in A2 scenario,and 0.26℃,0.26℃,-4.99 mm/10 a,9.36 mm/10 a and 0.04 m 3/s respectively in B2 scenario.The research results in this paper can provide reference for regional water resources management.