海洋物流对中国与“21世纪海上丝绸之路”沿线国家贸易影响的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Trade Impact of Marine Logistics on China and the Countries along the ’21st-Century Maritime Silk Road’

为研究海洋物流对中国与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家之间贸易的影响,文章选取2006—2018年中国与泰国、越南和缅甸等16个国家的班轮运输相关指数和海关贸易数据样本,运用引力方程模型进行实证检验,并在计量回归过程中逐步加入控制变量进行实证检验。研究结果表明:海洋物流水平与双边贸易量具有显著正相关关系,海洋物流水平每提升1%,双边贸易量就增长0.3974%;经济发展水平和人口规模对双边贸易量产生正向影响,而双边距离的增加不利于双边贸易的发展。因此,我国应重视双边港口的基础设施建设,加强与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家班轮公司的合作与对接,同时注重培养海洋物流专业人才。

In order to study the impact of marine logistics on trade between China and the countries along the"21st-Century Maritime Silk Road",this paper selected the data of liner transportation and customs trade between China and 16 countries of 2006—2018,such as Thailand,Vietnam and Myanmar.The impact of marine logistics on the trade between China and the countries was empirically tested by gravity equation model,and control variables were gradually added to the empirical test in the process of econometric regression in this paper.The results showed that:there was a significant positive correlation between the level of marine logistics and the volume of bilateral trade.Every 1%increase of the level of marine logistics,the volume of bilateral trade would increase by 0.3974%;the level of economic development and population size had a positive impact on the volume of bilateral trade,while the increase of bilateral distance was not conducive to the development of bilateral trade.Therefore,China should pay attention to the infrastructure construction of bilateral ports,strengthen the cooperation and docking with the liner companies of countries along the"21st-Century Maritime Silk Road",and pay attention to the cultivation of marine logistics professionals.