资本主义信用危机的成因及其传导机制探析

Analysis of the Causes and Transmission Mechanism of Capitalist Credit Crisis

美国金融业于2020年伊始即遭遇重创,资产价格短期内大幅缩水,这是其金融近年来不断动荡的一个缩影,有可能引发新一轮金融危机,并对世界经济产生深远影响。运用马克思的信用和危机理论,构建政治经济学视角下信用危机产生的传导机制,并对其进行实证检验后发现:信用扩张是内嵌于资本主义制度的一种必然趋势;由于工人工资存在制度性约束,信用扩张必然造成“虚假的繁荣”,即资本主义生产的相对过剩;资本主义国家对此的应对之策,是降低利率以刺激消费和投资;低利率下金融资产积累增速持续快于实体经济增速,危机终将在信用链条的薄弱环节爆发。美国巨量的信贷沉积、消费持续不振、在经济周期尾部所伴随的低利率、信用扩张快于实体经济等作为实证支持,验证了上述理论分析。

Finance of the United States suffered severe losses at the beginning of 2020,and its asset prices have decreased sharply in the short term,which is a microcosm of the continuous financial turmoil in the United States in recent years.It may trigger a new round of financial crisis andbring a profound impact on the world economy.After using Marx*s theory of credit and crisis to construct a transmission mechanism for occurrence of credit crises from the perspective of political economics and empirically test it,it is found that credit expansion is an inevitable trend embedded in the capitalist system.Due to institutional constraints for workers’salaries,credit expansion will inevitably lead to"false prosperity",that is,the relative excess of capitalist production.The response of capitalist countries to this is to lower interest rates to stimulate consumption and investment.The growth of financial asset accumulation continues to be faster than real economy growth under the background of low interest rates,so the crisis will eventually break out in the weak link of the credit chain.The huge amount of credit deposits,continued sluggish consumption,low interest rates at the end of the economic cycle,and faster credit expansion than real economy growth in the United Stateshave served as empirical support to verify the above theoretical analysis.