莫迪政府的印度洋战略新动向:驱动因素与局限性

New Developments in Modi Administration's Indian Ocean Strategy :Drivers and Limitations

莫迪执政以来,印度不仅与中国竞争的心态更加明显,对中国在印度洋的活动亦更为敏感。对于印度来说,无论是印度洋“净安全提供者”的角色定位,还是控制“印度之洋”的目标,都受到其自身能力的限制。印度当前的国际地位在上升,且处于被大国竞相拉拢的有利地位,增加了印度在印度洋借“印太”战略之势和美日澳等国之力对华实施对冲战略的态势。可以说,印度的印度洋战略观念正在悄然变化,印度在印度洋的战略新动向针对中国的意图明显。印度的印度洋战略调整是莫迪政府在国际环境变化与自身安全忧虑加剧情势下做出的“短视性”选择,缺乏战略实施的硬实力,忽视了印美之间的战略分歧,偏离了印度在印度洋的角色定位,为印度洋战略环境带来安全隐患。

Since the Modi Administration took office,not only has India adopted a noticeably more competitive posture towards China,but it has also become much more sensitive to China’s activities in the Indian Ocean.Yet regardless of whether India plays the role of a net security provider in,or gains full control over the Indian Ocean,it faces significant limitations vis-à-vis its capacity.As India’s international position rises in importance though,it is actively wooed by major foreign powers.This has strengthened its ability to leverage the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the US,Australia and Japan to hedge against Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean.This is driving a subtle change in India’s strategic outlook,which in turn has given birth to a new approach that is markedly targeted towards China.India’s strategic adjustments in the Indian Ocean represent a shortsighted decision by the Modi Administration made against the background of a changing international environment and rising security concerns.Not only does India lack the hard power needed to implement this strategy,but it also fails to acknowledge key strategic divides between India and the United States.This significant deviation in India’s position in the Indian Ocean region brings with it major security risks.