契约稳定性对农户跨期技术选择的影响——基于2271个地块数据的分析

Impact of contract stability on farming households’ intertemporal technology adoption:An analysis based on the data of 2271 plots

具有跨期属性的保护性耕作技术是"藏粮于地"战略实施的重要选择,农户的保护性耕作技术行为选择可能由于其收益的跨期属性有着独特的行为决策机制。本文以秸秆还田为例构建了农户跨期技术采纳的理论决策框架,在此基础上利用全国粮食主产省2271个地块的微观数据,采用二元Probit模型实证分析了产权性质及契约稳定性对农户保护性耕作技术采纳的影响。结果表明:①产权性质对农户跨期技术采纳有重要影响,农户自家地块技术采纳率比转入地块高25.11%;②产权性质对农户技术采纳的影响与耕地规模有关,耕地规模会降低土地转入对跨期技术选择的负向影响,这种影响在南方地区更为显著;③对转入土地而言,契约期限越长越有利于提升农户采纳跨期农业技术的概率。并且在契约期限的约束下,通过正规的流转平台签订流转契约的地块,跨期技术采纳率会有所提升。细分样本、考虑了选择偏误后发现相关结论仍然稳健。因此,加强农地可持续利用宣传、提升地权稳定性及交易规范性和提供农业补贴政策等是促进农户保护性耕作技术采纳的可行选择。

This study systematically analyzed the impact of farmland property right arrangement on farming households’inter-temporal technology adoption,and discussed the possible loss of income from the perspective of contract duration and contract forms.Finally,an empirical test was carried out based on 2271 plot-level protective tillage technology data records of six main grainproducing provinces in China.The results show that:(1)Property right arrangements have an important impact on farming households’inter-temporal technology adoption,and the adoption rate for their own land is 25.11%higher than that of transferred land.The impact of property right arrangements on inter-temporal technology adoption is related to the scale of cultivated land,and large scale of cultivated land will reduce the negative impact of land transfer on inter-temporal technology adoption.(2)For transferred land,the probability of farming households’adoption of inter-temporal agricultural technology can be increased by contract duration.For every 10 years of contract duration increase,the adoption rate will increase by 4.6%.For land transfer contracts signed through a formal transfer platform,the adoption rate of inter-temporal technology will increase as well.