高房价对区域创新的抑制效应及其空间分异研究

Inhibition Effect of High Housing Price on Regional Innovation and Its Spatial Differentiation

在地理距离和人口流动权重矩阵下,利用空间自回归模型和空间杜宾模型估计了房价对区域创新的抑制效应,并对空间效应进行多维度分解,识别出房价对创新抑制效应的空间差异。研究发现,房价上涨不仅显著拖累了本地创新,还通过空间溢出机制拖累地理邻近地区和人口流量联系紧密地区的创新,且这种创新拖累效应在地理距离联系紧密地区表现更明显。在地理距离权重矩阵下,房价上涨对创新抑制效应在空间上呈现显著的"梯度分异"特征,在以德州、洛阳、长沙和苏州为四个端点的"钻石型"区域内,区域房价上涨对我国整体区域创新的拖累最大。在人口流动权重矩阵下,房价上涨对创新抑制效应呈现"分散式""层级化"特征,占据"流量"枢纽地位的广州、北京、深圳、上海、成都、东莞、苏州、重庆、郑州、佛山、西安、杭州等地房价上涨对我国整体区域创新的拖累将更大,未来针对"流量枢纽"城市的房价规制政策将更能有效促进全国整体创新涌现。

With the weight matrix based on geographical distance and population mobility,it used the dynamic spatial autoregressive model and the spatial Durbin model to estimate the inhibiting effect of housing prices on regional innovation,and decomposed the spatial effects into multi-dimensions,and identified the spatial differences of the inhibiting effects.It finds that the local housing price rise not only significantly inhibits the emergence of local innovation,but also indirectly drags down the innovation of surrounding areas through population migration,interregional imitation and so on.With the weight matrix based on geographical distance,the inhibiting effect of the housing price rise on innovation presents the most significant“gradient differentiation”in space.In the“diamond”area with Dezhou,Luoyang,Changsha and Suzhou as the four endpoints,the regional housing prices rise has the biggest drag on the innovation in China.With the weight matrix based on population mobility,the inhibiting effect of housing prices on regional innovation presents“decentralization”and“hierarchy”.The cities which occupy“traffic”hub,including Guangzhou,Beijing,Shenzhen,Shanghai,Chengdu,Dongguan,Suzhou,Chongqing,Zhengzhou,Foshan,Xi’an,Hangzhou,drag on the overall regional innovation.In the future,the policy of housing price regulation for the“traffic hub”cities are more effective in promoting the emergence of overall innovation in China.