中国能耗的时空演化及其影响因素

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Energy Consumption and Influencing Factors in China

以2000—2017年中国能耗数据为基础,从能耗总量、能耗结构、能耗强度3个方面分析中国能耗的发展演化特征,并应用灰色模型对中国能耗未来趋势进行预测;选取2005、2010、2015、2017年作为时间截面,采用主成分分析法对中国30个省、市(区)的综合能耗水平进行评价,并借助地理探测器对能耗区域空间差异的影响因素进行测度。结果表明:近年来中国能耗增速有所回升,能耗结构性矛盾日益突出,能耗强度持续降低;各年份地区能耗水平空间分布特征各异,总体呈现出“高能耗区环带集聚—条带集聚—区域能耗水平均衡化”的空间分布态势;人口规模、科技创新水平对能耗总量的区域差异具有显著影响效应,并且人口规模的影响作用大于科技创新水平的,各因素影响力由大到小的排序为科技创新水平、对外贸易水平、居民消费水平、产业结构。

Based on energy consumption data from 2000 to 2017 in China,development and evolution characteristics of energy consumption in China were analyzed from 3 aspects of total energy consumption,energy consumption structure,and energy consumption intensity.The future trend of energy consumption in China was predicted by using the gray model.Selecting the years of 2005,2010,2015,and 2017 as time sections,the method of principal component analysis was used to evaluate comprehensive energy consumption levels of 30 provinces and cities(districts)in China.Influencing factors of regional spatial differences were measured with the help of geographical detector.The results show that the energy consumption growth in China picks up in recent years,the structural contradiction of energy consumption becomes increasingly prominent,and the energy consumption intensity continuously reduces.Spatial distribution characteristics of energy consumption level in each year are different,presenting the spatial distribution trend of girdle agglomeration to banding agglomeration to regional energy consumption level equalization in high energy consumption areas.The population scale and level of scientific and technological innovation have significant influence on the regional difference of total energy consumption.The influence of population scale is greater than that of the scientific and technological innovation level.The order of influence of each factor from the largest to the smallest is the scientific and technological innovation level,the foreign trade level,the household consumption level,and the industrial structure.