生态文明建设下风、光发电生态效益模拟与评估——以甘肃省为例

Simulation and Assessment of the Ecological Benefits of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power under Ecological Civilization Construction:A Case Study of Gansu Province

在我国生态文明建设日益受到重视的背景下,文章对风、光发电的生态影响进行了整体、全面的研究。首先,构建了分析风电和光伏发电对生态系统影响的系统动力学(system dynamics,SD)模型,并提出一种改进的耦合协调度模型;然后,以甘肃省为例进行SD情景模拟;最后,评估了多政策情景下甘肃省生态系统耦合协调度。结果表明,风电技改增效和光伏发电技改增效更有利于整个生态系统的发展。通过理论分析论证了甘肃省现行风、光发电政策的科学性,并为进一步发展风、光发电从而促进生态文明建设提出建议。

In the context of the growing importance of ecological civilization construction in China,this paper conducts an integral and comprehensive study on the ecological impact of wind power and photovoltaic power.First,a system dynamics(SD)model for analyzing the impact of wind power and photovoltaic power on the ecosystem is constructed,and an improved coupling coordination degree model is proposed.Then,the SD scenario simulation is carried out with Gansu Province as an example.Finally,the ecosystem coupling coordination degree of Gansu Province under multiple policy scenarios is evaluated.Results show that technology improvement and efficiency increase of wind power and photovoltaic power is more conducive to the development of the overall ecosystem.The scientificity of the current policy of wind power and photovoltaic power development in Gansu Province is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and suggestions for further development of wind power and photovoltaic power to promote ecological civilization construction are proposed.