多元化经营、经济政策不确定性与银行绩效

Diversified Operation,Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bank Performance

本文选取2010-2018年36家A股上市银行为研究样本,实证分析了多元化经营和经济政策不确定性对银行风险和收益的影响,研究结果表明:(1)多元化经营提高了银行风险、降低了银行收益;经济政策不确定性提高了银行风险、降低了银行收益。(2)没有证据支持外部的经济不确定性对多元化经营与银行风险之间的关系存在影响,经济政策不确定性放大了多元化经营对银行收益的抑制程度。(3)经济政策不确性放大了多元化经营对股份制银行风险的影响程度,并提升了对股份制银行收益的抑制作用。

Based on 36 A listed banks from 2010 to 2018,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of diversifi cation and economic policy uncertainty on bank risk and income.The results show that:(1)diversifi cation improves bank risk and reduces bank income;economic policy uncertainty increases bank risk and reduces bank income.(2)There is no evidence to support the impact of external economic uncertainty on the relationship between diversification and bank risk,and economic policy uncertainty amplifies the degree to which diversifi cation inhibits bank returns.(3)The economic policy has magnifi ed the impact of diversifi cation on the risk of joint-stock banks and enhanced the restraining eff ect on the income of joint-stock banks.