SARIMA时序分析在税收预测中的应用——以贵州省为例

Application of SARIMA time series analysis in tax forecast:take Guizhou Province as an example

随着我国国民经济的飞速发展,每年的税收收入也在稳步增长,税收收入已成为我国财政收入的主要来源.税收作为国家宏观经济调控的一种主要手段,可以指导生产要素的流转以及资源的合理配置,从而使生产力布局更合理.地方税收分析对掌握地方税收与经济的关系具有重要意义.进行税收收入的精确预测能为市场经济的宏观调控提供科学依据.本研究采用时间序列的SARIMA模型对税收收入进行建模预测,通过计算预测值与真实值的平均绝对百分比误差和均方根误差对模型进行评估,结果表明该模型有较好的预测度.

With the rapid development of our national economy,the annual tax revenue is also growing steadily.At the same time,tax revenue has become the main source of fiscal revenue in China.As a major means of national macro-economic control,taxation can guide the flow of production factors and the rational allocation of resources,so as to make the distribution of productive forces more reasonable.The analysis of local taxation is of great significance to understand the relationship between local taxation and economy.Accurate forecast of tax revenue can provide scientific basis for macro-control of market economy.In this paper,SARIMA model of time series is used to predict tax revenue.The model is evaluated by calculating the mean absolute percentage error and square root error between the predicted value and the real value,and the results show that the model has a good prediction degree.