知识确定性与国家利益: 一个国际环境合作的分析框架

Certainty Knowledge and National Interest: A Framework for International Environmental Cooperation

日益复杂的国际环境问题的解决依赖各国联合行动,但国际环境合作缺少强有力的中央权威,各国合作态度不一且面临诸多问题。国际环境议题需要通过知识和利益双因素综合分析合作空间,运用议题的知识确定性与各国的国家利益搭建分析框架,并以此框架分析气候变暖案例难以达成合作的原因,以及臭氧层空洞和地中海污染两个案例如何依靠不同路径达成合作。这3个案例的比较表明:议题的知识确定性与国家利益的动态变化共同影响国际环境合作的空间。在合作前期,较弱的知识确定性作用有限,国家合作行为主要取决于国家利益的考量;在合作中后期,逐渐明朗的知识确定性通过国际倡议压力和国内民意压力督促国家履责的作用日益明显,环境合作中资金技术机制的完善以及新技术收益和治理收益的显现,环境合作较易达成。

International environmental issues are complex and depend on joint actions of all states.However,international environmental cooperation lacks a central authority.As a consequence,different attitudes of states lead to many problems in cooperation.Previous studies focus on the interest-based explanation but ignore professional knowledge in environmental cooperation.International environmental issues need to comprehensively analyze the cooperation space with the use of the bi-factor of knowledge and interest,and develop a theoretical framework with certainty knowledge and national interest.We apply the framework to analyze the reasons why climate change is difficult to cooperate,and how the two cases of ozone depletion and Mediterranean pollution rely on different cooperation approaches.The comparison of the three cases shows that dynamic evolution of certainty knowledge and national interest jointly affect the space of international environmental cooperation.In the early stage of cooperation,weaker certainty knowledge has no obvious effect,and the cooperation mainly depends on national interest.In the middle and later stages,the increasing certainty knowledge plays a more important role in urging states to fulfil their responsibilities through international initiative pressure and domestic public opinion pressure.The improvement of funding and technology mechanisms and the increase of new technologies and governance benefits make international environmental cooperation easier to achieve.