PPP模式下海绵城市风险因素指标研究

A Study on the Risk Factors Index of Sponge City under PPP Model

随着海绵城市试点计划的继续推进,国家对海绵城市建设高度重视。单个风险因素不能完全决定项目成败,准确分析各个风险因素间的相互影响关系是风险管理的基础。基于海绵城市全寿命周期的决策、设计、建设、运营四个阶段,识别构建了PPP模式下SC风险影响因素指标体系;再利用集成DEMTEL-ISM方法对PPP模式下SC风险影响因素进行定量分析,首先运用DEMATEL方法确定SC风险因素间两两影响关系,再通过设置合理阈值,得到ISM方法所需的可达矩阵,运算后最终得到SC风险影响因素的结构模型,最后找出关键风险影响因素。结果表明,融资风险、政府信用风险及工期延误、成本超支、营业收益不足是各阶段风险关键影响因素,并针对结论提出建议,为SC风险管理提供有价值的参考。

With the propulsion of the sponge city pilot plan,the state attaches great importance to the construction of sponge city.Given that a single risk factor cannot completely determine the success or the failure of the project,the accurate analysis of the interaction between various risk factors is the foundation of risk management.Based on the four stages of decision-making,design,construction and operation in the whole life cycle of a sponge city,the paper identifies and constructs the index system of SC risk influencing factors under PPP model.It also makes a quantitative analysis of SC risk influencing factors under PPP model by using the integration of DEMTEl and the ISM Method.Firstly,DEMATEL is employed to identify the relationship between SC risk factors and then the reasonable threshold is established to obtain the reachability matrix that the ISM method requires.After calculation a structure model of SC risk influencing factors is set up to find out the key risk influencing factors finally.The results show that the key factors lie in the delay of construction progress,the cost overrun,the technical defects and the insufficient profit at operation stage.Accordingly suggestions are put forward to provide valuable reference for SC risk management.