地震人员伤亡影响因素及预测方法研究进展

Research progress on influencing factors and prediction methods of earthquake casualties

目的探索研究地震人员伤亡情况的影响因素、预测方法及演化趋势,为地震灾害应急响应、应急处置、资源配置及指挥调度提供理论依据和支撑。方法结合文献研究和案例回顾法,深入系统分析近年来国内外地震人员伤亡影响因素和预测方法。结果影响地震人员伤亡的因素概括为地震因素、社会因素、自然因素、环境因素、人为因素5大类;主要基于数理统计、结构模型构建、计算机软件算法等,从不同角度预测地震人员伤亡情况。结论当前研究初步阐明了不同领域与视角下的地震人员伤亡影响因素,探索了基于数理统计、计算机软件分析、结构模型构建等多种方法对地震人员伤亡数量的预测。

Objective To explore the influencing factors and prediction methods of earthquake casualties,and provide theoretical basis and support for earthquake disaster preparedness and medical response.Methods Combined with literature research and case review,the influencing factors and prediction methods of earthquake casualties at home and abroad in recent years were analyzed systematically.Results The factors affecting earthquake casualties are summarized into five categories:earthquake factor,social factor,natural factor,environmental factor and human factor.Based on mathematical statistics,structural model construction,computer software algorithm,etc.,the earthquake casualties are predicted ranging from theoretical layer to practical layer.Conclusion The current literature had analyzed the influencing factors and explored the prediction methods of earthquake casualties preliminarily.