中国投机程度与GDP稳态增长的相关性及制衡机制研究

A Study on Correlation between the Degree of Speculation in China and the Steady Growth of GDP and the Check and Balance Mechanism

金融危机后的投机资本冲击,加剧了投机资本与投资资本市场的失衡,中国资产市场的投机程度也达到了新的高度。迄今为止,对于投机资本的界定和测算,仍然停留在凯恩斯主义投机货币需求层面,关于投机程度与GDP增幅相关性分析也很少。为此,本文在理论上以宏观生产函数的重构为初始点,将大数据时代的总产出视为总资本即投资资本和投机资本投入的增函数,导出投机程度对社会总产出呈现出非对称倒U型关系;在计量上先基于GDP和生产性货币流通速度测算投资资本、投机资本和投机程度,再通过单方程误差修正模型(ECM)和多方程向量误差修正模型(VECM)验证投机程度与GDP之间的关系,测算出中国投机资本程度对于GDP稳态增长的最优区间,并以脉冲反应方程(IRF)分析投机程度对GDP以及社会总投资的动态影响过程。实证结果为:第一,总体而言,中国投机程度的最优区间应在50~70之间;第二,投机程度具有惯性,投机程度对自身的脉冲响应显示,其上升会在较长的时间内持续,短期内还会有自我强化效应,随着时间的推进反应在波动中逐渐消失;第三,社会总投资和人均GDP对投机程度的反应相似,都呈现短期内上升、长期波动趋稳的特征,而且最终稳定到低于初始水平的状态,但社会总投资对投机程度的反应略快于人均GDP。为了降低投机程度、实现GDP稳态增长,短期内需要政府相应的政策制衡。

The impact of speculative capital after the financial crisis has exacerbated the imbalance between speculative capital and investment capital markets,and the degree of speculation in China’s asset market has reached a new height.So far,the definition and calculation of speculative capital have remained at the level of Keynesian speculative currency demand,and there are few analyses on the correlation between the degree of speculation and GDP growth.For this reason,this paper theoretically takes the reconstruction of the macro-production function as the initial point,regards the total output in the era of big data as an increasing function of total capital,namely investment capital and speculative capital input,and derives that the degree of speculation presents an asymmetric inverted U-shaped relationship with total social output.Empirically,firstly measure investment capital,speculative capital,and degree of speculation based on GDP and productive circulation speed,and then single equation error correction model(ECM)and the multiple equation vector error correction model(VECM)are used to verify the relationship between the degree of speculation and GDP,and calculate the optimal range of the degree of speculative capital in China for the steady-state growth of GDP;and the impulse response function(IRF)is used to analyze the dynamic impact process of the degree of speculation on GDP and total social investment.The empirical results are as follows:first,in general,the optimal range of speculation in China should be between 50 and 70;second,the degree of speculation is inertial,and its impulse response to its own shows that its rise will be longer.Over time,there will be a self-reinforcing effect in the short term,and the response will gradually disappear in fluctuations as time progresses;third,the total social investment and per capita GDP respond similarly to the degree of speculation,both showing a short-term rise and long-term fluctuations.The characteristic of stability,and eventually stabilized to a state below the initial level,but the total social investment response to speculation is slightly faster than per capita GDP.In order to reduce the degree of speculation and achieve steady GDP growth,the government needs corresponding policy checks and balances in the short term.