基于云物元模型的采空区稳定性评估研究

Research of goaf stability evaluation based on cloud-matter element model

针对采空区稳定性影响因素的随机性、模糊性及因素之间不相容性等特点,将云模型和物元分析方法结合,提出采空区稳定性评估的云物元模型。在分析采空区稳定性影响因素的基础上,构建评估指标体系,采用德尔菲法计算评估指标权重。将所建立的模型应用于某铜矿的6个采空区进行稳定性评估,通过Matlab软件编程计算6个采空区稳定性的综合关联度,依据最大隶属度原则确定采空区稳定性的评估等级。研究分析表明,评估结果与实践相符,云物元模型对评估采空区稳定性是有效的。

Considering the features of influencing factors of goaf stability,such as randomness,ambiguity,and incompatibility between factors,the cloud model and matter element analysis were combined,and cloud-matter element model was presented to assess the goaf stability.Based on analyzing the influencing factors of the old stability,the evaluation index system was built,and the index weights were calculated by Delphi method.The built model was employed to assess six goafs in a copper mine,and Matlab software was used to calculate the overall connection degree.The goaf stability level was defined based on maximum membership principle.The study shows that the evaluation results are consistent with the practice,and the cloud-matter element model is effective to assess the stability of the goaf.