新冠疫情防控措施对批发零售和住宿餐饮业的冲击——基于云南省昆明市的因果推断

Impact of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Measures on Wholesaleand Retail,Accommodation and Catering Industry——Based on Causal Inferences From Official Decrees in Kunming,Yunnan

为量化新冠疫情下产业受到的冲击,选取云南省和昆明市的疫情防控措施作为政策实验或处理变量,尝试解决因此次疫情覆盖面广、持续期长而难以确定实验-对照组和冲击时点的问题。以昆明市批发零售和住宿餐饮业为主要研究对象,采用2019年1月至2020年5月的238个样本组成的面板数据,通过PSM和DID两种因果推断方法,估计了云南省级和昆明市级两种风险分级防疫措施对上述产业的冲击。结果表明:PSM方法得到的处理效应不显著,而DID的方法则显示,云南省风险分级措施对昆明市批发零售和住宿餐饮业的经营情况产生了显著的负向影响。在对结果进行稳健性检验后,对“后疫情”时期稳定和推动批发零售和住宿餐饮业的发展提出了可供参考的政策建议。

In order to quantify the impact on industries under COVID-19,the epidemic prevention and control measures in Yunnan Province and Kunming City were selected as policy experiment or treatment variables to try to solve the problem that it is difficult to determine the experimental-control group and impact time point due to the wide coverage and long duration of the epidemic.Based on the panel data of 238 samples from January 2019 to may 2020,this study estimates the impact of two risk grading epidemic prevention measures on the above industries in Yunnan Province and Kunming City by using PSM and DID,two causal inference methods.The results show that:the PSM method has no significant treatment effect,while DID method shows that the risk classification measures in Yunnan Province have a significant negative impact on the operation of wholesale and retail,accommodation and catering industry in Kunming.After the robustness test of the results,some policy suggestions were put forward to stabilize and promote the development of wholesale and retail,accommodation and catering industry in the“post epidemic”period.