概率安全评价在核能安全分析领域的应用和发展

Evalution and Application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment in Nuclear Energy Safety Analysis

概率安全评价(PSA)是核能安全分析领域的两大分析方法之一。本文从PSA概念入手,首先从理论基础、分析视角等多个方面比较了确定论和概率论2种分析方法的差异;其次,梳理PSA在核能安全分析领域的历史进程,通过回顾PSA在技术和法规上的变化,展示了PSA与核能安全在提升过程中相互促进的关系;再次,阐释PSA技术在风险量化预测、平衡安全设计、安全决策、安全监管方面的应用,并通过华龙一号(HPR1000)的实例展示了PSA在核能安全分析中的具体应用方式。最后,对PSA技术未来的发展方向进行了预测,指出确定论和概率论2种分析方法将深入融合,PSA分析从安全目标向任务目标转移、从静态向动态转换、从认知向感知转换的发展方向。

Probabilistic safety assessment(PSA)is one of the two major safety analysis methods in the field of nuclear energy safety analysis.Starting from the concept of PSA,this paper firstly compares the difference between deterministic safety assessment and probabilistic safety assessment from the theoretical basis and analytical perspective.Secondly,it combs the historical process of PSA in the field of nuclear energy safety analysis,and through reviewing the changes in technology and regulations of PSA,it shows the mutual promotion relationship between PSA and nuclear energy safety in the process of upgrading.Thirdly,the application of the PSA method in risk quantitative prediction,balance safety design,risk safety-making,and risk safety supervision is expounded,and the application of PSA in nuclear energy safety assessment is illustrated by HPR1000.Finally,the future development direction of PSA technology is predicted.It points out that the deterministic safety assessment and probabilistic safety assessment will deeply integrate,and the PSA analysis will shifts from security target to task target,from static to dynamic,and from cognitive to perceptual direction.