新型不确定性分析容忍限估计方法

A New Uncertainty Analysis Method for Tolerance Limit Evaluation

使用WILKS公式的不确定性分析方法因拥有降低计算量的优点而被广为使用,但是面对与高精度计算导致的时间成本逐渐提升,WILKS公式已不能完全满足需求。本文通过对WILKS公式原理分析,从数学原理上入手,提出了一种基于WILKS公式原理的不确定性分析容忍限上下界估计的新方法。相比于WILKS公式,本文所述的方法可以有效降低所需计算的最小样本容量,减少不确定性分析的时间成本。

Uncertainty analysis methods based on WILKS formula is most generally applied for its advantages in reducing the calculation amount.However,the high resolution calculation is required in the nuclear reactor design and safty evaluation,which demand the uncertainty analysis methods with higher efficiency.This paper provides a new method to evaluate the tolerance limit,which is based on the same mathmatical principal of WILKS formula method but with improvements.Compared to WILKS formula method,this new method is capable to decrease the minimum sample size for evaluating the tolerance limit.