经济政策变化是否影响了银行资产证券化发展?——基于经济政策不确定性的视角

Does the Change of Economic Policy Affect the Development of Bank Asset Securitization?From the Perspective of Economic Policy Uncertainty

以经济政策不确定性为主要特征的经济政策频繁变化将对银行产生不利冲击,并通过银行行为的变化推动资产证券化发展。文章以2011-2018年中国银行业数据为研究样本,基于经济政策不确定性对经济政策频繁变化进行衡量,充分识别经济政策不确定性与银行资产证券化发展的内在关系,以及相应的异质性特征。结果表明:(1)经济政策不确定性越大,银行发展资产证券化的动机越强;(2)影响机制检验发现,银行期限错配、风险承担及盈利水平的不利变化,是经济政策不确定性影响银行资产证券化发展的中介效应;(3)经济政策不确定性对银行资产证券化发展的促进作用,在非上市银行、城商行及农商行中更为显著。文章认为,鉴于银行发展资产证券化的目的在于应对外部环境及其对自身微观行为的不利冲击,监管部门应针对资产证券化的功能定位监管措施,并且尽量营造透明公平的环境,稳定银行机构对未来政策的预期,同时中小银行也要积极推动经营转型,主动增强适应宏观经济环境的能力。文章从经济政策不确定性这一宏观视角出发,拓展了银行资产证券化的研究维度,基于银行微观结构的变化深化了对经济政策变化及不确定性影响效应的认知。

The existing literature shows that frequent changes of economic policies characterized by Economic Policy Uncertainty have adverse effects on bank risks and profits.However,the functional effect of Asset Securitization can not only reduce bank risk,but also improve asset liquidity structure to enrich liquidity sources.Therefore,we can not help thinking whether banks can make use of the functional effects of Asset Securitization,to deal with the adverse effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty?This problem constitutes the main idea of this paper to study the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and bank Asset Securitization,that is,whether the frequent policy change trend characterized by Economic Policy Uncertainty is positively promoting the development of bank Asset Securitization?Is there a close relationship between the Uncertainty of Economic Policy and the micro motivation of the development of bank Asset Securitization?If the Economic Policy Uncertainty has an adverse impact on banks,can the impact constitute the development motivation of Asset Securitization?By answering these questions,we can not only clarify the logic behind the development of bank Asset Securitization,further clarify the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and bank behavior change from the dimension of Asset Securitization development,but also provide theoretical enlightenment for the scientific development of bank Asset Securitization.This paper measures the frequent changes of economic policies based on theUncertainty of Economic Policies.Combined with the sample data of Chinese banking industry,this paper discusses the impact mechanism of Economic Policy Uncertainty changes on the development of Asset Securitization of banks.The results show that:(1)the greater the Uncertainty of Economic Policies,the stronger the motivation of banks to develop Asset Securitization;(2)the test of impact mechanism finds that the maturity mismatch of banks,the higher the incentive of banks to develop Asset Securitization The negative change of risk-taking and profit level is the intermediary effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the development of bank Asset Securitization;(3)the promotion effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the development of bank Asset Securitization is more significant in non listed banks,urban commercial banks and rural commercial banks.Compared with the existing research,the possible contribution and incremental work of this paper are as follows:firstly,it extends the research literature of bankAsset Securitization.At present,the academic circles focus on the development of Asset Securitization Based on the micro motivation of banks.This paper analyzes the macro perspective of policy uncertainty,which not only further clarifies the development logic of bank Asset Securitization,but also extends the theoretical research of bank Asset Securitization.Secondly,it enriches the research literature on the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on bank behavior,and deepens the cognition of the effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty from the perspective of bank behavior.At present,most of the discussions on the uncertainty of economic policy focus on macroeconomic fluctuations,enterprise investment and innovation.This paper confirms the positive impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the development of Asset Securitization of banks.It not only expands the research field of Economic Policy Uncertainty from the perspective of banks,but also deepens the cognition of the effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty.Thirdly,the paper tries to construct the analytical logic of"policy uncertainty-bank micro change-Asset Securitization development",and comprehensively tests the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and the development of bank Asset Securitization from the perspective of influence path and heterogeneity types of different banks.