新兴市场经济体政府债务危机原因分析及治理经验探析

Underlying Reasons and Governance Experience Study on Emerging Market Public Debt Crisis

近50年来,政府债务增长一直是全球经济反复出现的现象。2010年以来,新兴市场经济体又经历了一轮快速债务增长。尽管当前全球利率处于历史低位,但债务的快速增长使新兴市场经济体容易受到市场波动的影响。过去的债务增长往往引发这些经济体普遍的金融危机。本文分析了影响新兴市场经济体债务风险的因素,总结了新兴市场经济体应对债务危机的经验,并考虑了有助于降低债务危机的政策。

In the past 50 years,government debt growth has been a recurring phenomenon in the global economy.Since 2010,emerging market economies have experienced another round of rapid debt growth.Although current global interest rates are at historically low levels,the rapid growth of debt makes emerging market economies vulnerable to market fluctuations.Past debt growth has often triggered widespread financial crises in these economies.This article explores the factors that affect the new round of debt crises and considers policies that can help reduce the triggering of debt crises.Sound debt management,safe monetary policy,fiscal policy,and strong banking supervision can reduce the possibility of a financial crisis and help mitigate its impact when a crisis occurs.