中国对虾出口贸易的影响因素及潜力分析——基于贸易引力模型

Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Potential of Chinese Prawn Export Trade:Analysis Based on the Gravity Model of Trade

选取中国与主要对虾出口市场2003-2017年的对虾贸易面板数据,运用引力模型对各影响因素进行回归分析。结果表明,出口市场的经济水平、中国的对虾产量以及APEC成员对中国对虾的出口有着促进作用,中国与各出口市场的地理距离以及对虾疾病EMS对对虾的出口有着较弱的阻碍作用。并根据引力模型测算了各出口市场的贸易潜力,其中美国等12个国家和地区属于潜力再造型出口市场,加拿大属于潜力开拓型出口市场,日本、澳大利亚等15个国家和地区属于潜力巨大型出口市场。根据分析及测算结果分别从企业和政府的角度提出了促进对虾出口贸易发展的政策建议。

This paper selects the panel data on shrimp trade between China and the main shrimp exporting markets from 2003 to 2017.Regression analysis is performed on each influencing factor using the Gravity Model.The results show that the economic scales of exporting markets,China′s production of prawns and APEC members have a promoting effect on the export of Chinese shrimp,the geographical distance between China and exporting markets and the export of shrimp disease EMS has a negative effect on it.Based on the Gravity Model,the trade potential of each exporting market was measured.Twelve countries and regions such as the United States belong to the potential remodeling export market,Canada is a potential exploring export market,fifteen countries and regions such as Japan and Australia belong to the huge potential export market.According to the analysis and calculation results,policy proposals of promoting the development of shrimp export trade were put forward from the perspectives of enterprises and governments.