增值税减税提升了中国资本回报率吗

Can VAT Tax Reduction Improve China’s Capital Return

本文利用我国省级层面数据,结合中介效应模型,在对资本回报率精准测算的基础上,探究增值税减税对我国资本回报率的影响及其作用机理。研究发现:2017年开始实施的增值税减税政策,能够显著提升资本回报率;更换资本回报率的测算方法进行稳健性估计,依然支持上述结论;增值税减税主要通过加大企业研发创新投入等中介效应提升资本回报率。进一步检验结果显示,增值税减税对资本回报率的提升具有一定的滞后性和连续性,政策效果主要集中表现在减税政策实施后的两个年度内,但随着时间的延续,政策效果逐渐减弱。本文从增值税减税视角揭示其对资本回报率的提升机制,为后续政府部门继续减少增值税纳税档次、降低增值税税率提供理论参考与现实依据。

The increase in return on capital is a key channel to achieve high-quality economic growth.The reality of economic development shows that tax reform is one of the most critical factors affecting the rate of return on capital.The 2017 VAT rate reduction,and the subsequent 2019“tax reduction and fee reduction”policy,reduced the VAT rate by nearly a quarter,bringing the total tax reduction to more than 2 trillion yuan,reducing the overall macro economy Tax burden.As the highlight of the“tax reduction and fee reduction”policy,the value-added tax reduction has realized the inclusive tax preference of the whole chain,effectively alleviated the tax burden in the production and operation of enterprises,and improved the efficiency of capital use.The rate of return on capital has received widespread attention from scholars at home and abroad,so what is the driving force behind the increase in the rate of return on capital?This paper uses China`s provincial level data,combined with the mediation effect model,to explore the impact of VAT tax reduction on China`s return on capital and its mechanism of action.The results show that the VAT tax cuts implemented in 2017 can significantly improve the return on capital,and replace the calculation method of the return on capital for the estimation of robustness,it still supports the above conclusions.VAT tax reduction mainly improves the return on capital by the mediating effect,such as increasing the R&D.Further tests show that the impact of the VAT tax reduction policy to the return on capital has a certain lag and continuity effect,the policy effect is mainly concentrated in the two years after the implementation of the tax reduction policy,but the policy effect of the VAT reform gradually weakens over time.This means that to be lowered the VAT rate,reduced the tax grade of the VAT,and achieved the entire industry chain input tax deduction,will be the key to the continued improvement of the return on capital.This paper reveals its mechanism of improving the return on capital from the perspective of VAT tax reduction,which can provide theoretical reference and realistic basis for the government departments continue to reduce the tax grade of the VAT and lower the VAT rate.