新型城镇化与产业结构的交互影响——以环长株潭城市群为例

Interaction Between New Urbanization and Industrial Structure:Taking the City Group Around Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan as an Example

构建了环长株潭城市群产业结构合理化指数、产业结构高度化指数和新型城镇化指数,并分析了这3个指数在2005—2017年期间的时空演变规律。运用面板向量自回归模型估计方法分析三者的关联效应和影响机制,从而克服变量之间因双向影响所导致的内生性的问题。结果表明:①产业结构合理化相对于产业结构高度化对新型城镇化的促进作用更大;②新型城镇化倒逼产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化的作用较小;③产业结构合理化单向影响产业结构高度化。文章针对研究结果,提出了优化产业布局,减少同构性,提高产业结构合理化;调整产业发展战略,提高产业高度化;提高新型城镇化发展水平,推动城镇化与产业结构互促发展的对策建议。

This paper constructs the rationalization index of industrial structure,the high degree index of industrial structure and the new urbanization index of the city group around Changhsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan,and analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution law of these three indexes in the period of 2005-2017.The panel vector autoregressive model estimation method is used to analyze the correlation effect and influence mechanism of the three,so as to overcome the endogenous problem caused by the two-way influence between variables.The results show that:1)The rationalization of industrial structure plays a greater role in promoting the new urbanization than that of industrial structure;2)The rationalization of industrial structure forces the rationalization of industrial structure to play a smaller role;3)The rationalization of industrial structure affects the upgrading of industrial structure in one way.According to the research results,this paper puts forward:optimize the industrial layout,reduce the isomorphism and improve the rationalization;adjust the development strategy of the first,second and third industries,improve the industrial height;improve the development level of new urbanization,and promote the mutual development of urbanization and industrial structure.