石油安全视角下中国原油进口贸易时空格局演化分析

Evolution of Temporal and Spatial Pattern of China’s Crude Oil Import Trade from the Perspective of Petroleum Security

基于石油安全视角,以原油进口贸易为研究对象,采用原油进口依存度、多元化指数及集中度探讨中国原油进口贸易的时序动态特征,运用空间分析方法刻画其时空格局演变特征,并分析其中的问题。结果表明:①新中国成立以来中国原油进口依存度先下降再上升,大体呈"V"字形,预测发现2019—2040年依存度仍将缓慢上升,到2040年达到81.63%,原油消费仍将主要依赖于进口。②1993—2018年中国原油进口来源地"虚多实少",原油进口集中度虽小幅下降但仍处于较高值,从平均值来看整体为中(上)集中寡占型,受原油进口大国的牵制很大。③1993—2018年中国原油进口贸易重心愈发趋近全球原油产量重心,有利于保障原油需求的物质基础,但由于原油进口贸易重心往西北方向偏移,重心持续外移降低了原油进口的经济性;原油进口贸易愈发分散,但多元化效应没有凸显,主要集中在中东、非洲国家和俄罗斯,主要来源地政局不稳使得进口风险依然存在;原油进口空间分布方向转为西南—东北,中国在美洲国家进口的原油越来越多,提升了运输的安全性。最后从积极开展"能源外交",巩固和加强与中东、中亚国家和俄罗斯的合作,系统评估自非洲进口原油的供应和运输通道风险,推进与美洲国家合作等方面提出对策与建议,以期为保障中国石油安全提供科学依据与决策支持。

From the perspective of petroleum security,this paper analyzes the dynamic characteristics of China’s crude oil import trade based on dependence degree of crude oil imports,diversity index and concentration degree,and then uses spatial analysis methods to describe its evolution characteristics of temporal and spatial pattern.The results show that:1)Since the founding of PRC,it shows V-shaped characteristic on China’s dependence degree of crude oil imports.It is predicted that the dependence degree of crude oil imports rising slowly from 2019 to 2040 will reach 81.63%by 2040,and crude oil consumption will continue to depend on imports.2)In 1993-2018,the import source of China’s crude oil is actually less than we might think.The concentration of crude oil import decreases slightly,but still keeps in a high value.From the viewpoint of average value,it has a characteristic of central(upper)centralized oligopoly,and it is very much constrained by import countries of crude oil.3)From 1993 to 2018,the import trade center of China’s crude oil is increasingly close to the center of global crude oil production,which is conducive to ensuring the material basis of crude oil demand.However,due to the shift of the center of crude oil import trade to the northwest,the continuous outward shift of the center of gravity reduces the economy of crude oil import.The crude oil import trade which is increasingly fragmented is mainly concentrated in the Middle East,Africa and Russia,but its diversification effect is not prominent.And the instability of the source region,the import risk still exists.The spatial distribution direction of crude oil import turns to the southwest-northeast direction,and China importing more crude oil from Americas can improves the safety of transportation.Finally,it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects which are actively carrying out"energy diplomacy",consolidating and strengthening cooperation with countries in the Middle East,Central Asia and Russia,systematically assessing the risks of supply and transportation channels of crude oil imported from Africa,and promoting cooperation with countries in the Americas,which provide scientific basis and decision support for ensuring China’s oil security.