中国旅游安全事件分布与引致因素

Distribution and Formative Factors of Tourism Safety Incidents in China

综合利用季节性强度指数、地理集中度、不平衡指数、标准差椭圆等方法,全面揭示2010—2019年我国国内旅游安全事件的时空分布特征及演变规律;借助地理探测器探索引致国内旅游安全事件时空分异的关键因素。结果表明:①我国国内旅游安全事件的发生时间呈现整体波动性与分布集中性特征。7~8月是事件高发月份,春、夏季是事件高发期。②我国国内旅游安全事件的高发区域呈现分散与缩减特征。事件符合胡焕庸线的空间分布特征,即多发于我国东南部。2010—2019年我国国内旅游安全事件的空间分布较为分散,事件低频区逐步扩大,事件高频区逐步缩减;我国国内旅游安全事件的标准差椭圆中心位于湖北省,安全事件分布走向有向东北转移的趋势,且标准差椭圆呈现扩大趋势。③人员、设施设备、环境以及管理因素的耦合作用引致了国内旅游安全事件的时空分异,其中地质灾害防治投资、旅游从业人员数和主要城市降水量的影响力较大。

In order to reveal the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and evolution rules of domestic tourism security events from 2010 to 2019,we employed the seasonal intensity index,geographical concentration,imbalance index,standard deviation ellipse and other methods to analyze the domestic tourism security events.Additionally,we explored the key factors that lead to the temporal and spatial differentiation of domestic tourism safety events with the help of geographic probes.The results show that:1)the occurrence time of domestic tourism security incidents in China presents the overall volatility and distribution concentration characteristics.July and August are the months with high incidence of accidents,while spring and summer are the periods with high incidence of tourism safety incidents.2)The high incidence of domestic tourism security incidents in China is characterized by dispersion and reduction.The events were consistent with the spatial distribution characteristics of Hu Huanyong line,that is,they were mostly in the southeast of China.From2010 to 2019,the spatial distribution of China’s domestic tourism safety incidents is relatively dispersed,with the lowfrequency accident area gradually expanding and the high-frequency accident area gradually decreasing.The center of the standard deviation ellipse of China’s domestic tourism security events is located in Hubei Province with tends to shift to the northeast,and the standard deviation ellipse shows an expanding trend.3)The coupling effect of personnel,facilities,environment and management factors leads to the temporal and spatial differentiation of domestic tourism security events,among which the investment in geological disaster prevention and control,number of tourism practitioners and precipitation in major cities have great influence.