长春市雾霾污染物对儿童肺炎住院人数影响的时间序列分析

Effects of haze pollutants on number of children hospitalized with pneumonia in Changchun City:a time-series study

目的探讨长春市雾霾污染物对儿童肺炎住院人数的影响。方法收集2018年1月1日—12月31号长春市儿童肺炎每日住院病例资料,雾霾主要污染物浓度指标(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、O3)及气象数据。运用病例交叉设计研究和条件logistic回归等方法分析数据。结果在控制当日气温、相对湿度的影响后,秋季污染物浓度每升高10μg/m^3,PM2.5对儿童肺炎住院影响的最佳滞后天数是4天(OR=3.0,95%CI:2.503~3.596);PM10的最佳滞后天数是3天(OR=1.570,95%CI:1.425~1.729);SO2、NO2的最佳滞后天数是5天(OR=17.034,95%CI:9.449~30.707;OR=1.822,95%CI:1.573~2.110);O3的最佳滞后天数是2天(OR=1.629,95%CI:1.477~1.798),差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。结论长春市雾霾污染物浓度升高可能导致儿童肺炎住院风险增加,且存在季节性差异,四季中秋季为唯一致病因素。

Objective To explore the effects of haze pollutants on number of children hospitalized with pneumonia in Changchun City.Methods The daily data on population of children hospitalized with pneumonia,concentration indexes of main pollutants in haze(PM2.5,PM10,SO2,NO2,O3)and meteorological data in Changchun City from January 1 to December 31,2018 were collected.Case crossover design and conditional logistic regression were used to analyze the data.Results After controlling the influence of the daily temperature and relative humidity,when the concentration of pollutants increases by 10μg/m^3 in autumn,the best lag time of PM2.5 on hospitalized children with pneumonia was four days(OR=3.0,95%CI:2.503-3.596),the best lag time of PM10 was five days(OR=1.570,95%CI:1.425-1.729),the best lag time of SO2 and NO2 was five days(OR=17.034,95%CI:9.449-30.707;OR=1.822,95%CI:1.573-2.110),while the best lag time of O3 was two days(OR=1.629,95%CI:1.477-1.798),and the differences were statistically significant(all P<0.05).Conclusion Increased concentrations of haze pollutants in Changchun City may increase the risk of hospitalization for pneumonia in children,and there are seasonal differences,the autumn is the only pathogenic factor in the four seasons.