环境保护能否提高中国生产性服务业比重——基于低碳城市试点策略研究

Can Environmental Protection Increase the Proportion of Producer Services in China:Research on Pilot Strategy of Low-carbon City

目前对环境政策的研究主要聚焦于评估政策效应,鲜有分析环保政策对生产性服务业的影响。鉴于此,本文将低碳城市试点政策视为“准自然实验”,基于2003—2016年285个地级市数据,采用双重差分法探究低碳试点政策能否提升生产性服务业占比。实证结果表明:低碳试点政策能显著提升我国生产性服务业比重,试点城市比非试点城市的生产性服务业比重提高约2.58%,经过一系列的稳健性检验,该结论仍然成立。此外,异质性检验结果显示,政策效果主要体现在一类大型城市;细分行业方面,低碳城市建设对信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业,批发和零售业,科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业均存在显著的促进作用。本文认为低碳政策的实施应因地制宜、因规模制宜,要继续加大环保技术投入,加速形成“结构”与“技术”的双重低碳保障。

At present,the research on environmental policy mainly focuses on the evaluation of policy effect,and seldom analyzes the impact of environmental policy on producer services.This paper regards the low-carbon city pilot policy as a“quasi-natural experiment”,based on the data of 285 prefecture level cities in 2003-2016,and uses the double difference method to explore whether the low-carbon pilot policy can improve the proportion of producer services.The empirical results show that low-carbon pilot policy can significantly increase the proportion of producer services in China,the proportion of producer services in pilot cities is increased by about 2.58%compared with that in non-pilot cities;after a series of robustness checks,the conclusion is still valid.In addition,the heterogeneity test results show that the policy effect is mainly reflected in a class of large cities.In terms of industry segmentation,the construction of low-carbon cities has a significant role in promoting information transmission,software and information technology services,wholesale and retail industries,as well as scientific research,technical services and geological exploration.This paper argues that the implementation of low-carbon policy should be adapted to local conditions and scale,continue to increase the investment in environmental protection technology,and accelerate the formation of“structure”and“technology”dual lowcarbon protection.