空气污染对污染企业投资行为的影响研究——基于“悲观预期”的视角

Air Pollution,Pessimistic Expectations,and the Investment Behavior of Polluting Enterprises:Evidence from China

本文利用2014—2017年沪深A股上市污染企业的数据,研究了空气污染对污染上市企业投资行为的影响。研究发现,空气污染越严重,污染企业的投资支出越少。当空气污染程度上升,一方面,污染企业的管理者对未来环保政策持有“悲观预期”,这种消极情绪导致投资支出减少;另一方面,污染企业存在较高的环保政策风险,投资者的“悲观预期”导致污染企业的资金成本上升和融资能力下降,进而导致投资支出的减少。本文从“悲观预期”视角,解释了未来的环保政策如何改变污染企业当前的投资行为。进一步地,污染企业的污染程度、产权性质、政策支持力度以及地区法治水平也会显著影响空气污染与投资支出的关系。本文拓展了空气污染与企业决策关系的相关研究,并有助于理解和改善环保政策的传导机制与实施效果。

Based on the data of A-share listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange from 2014 to 2017,this paper examines the impact of air pollution on the investment behavior of polluting enterprises.The results show that the investment expenditure of polluting enterprises decreases as the air pollution becomes more serious.When air pollution exacerbates,on the one hand,the managers of polluting enterprises will have“pessimistic expectation”for future environmental policies,which decreases enterprises’investment.On the other hand,the investors with“pessimistic expectation”will cause capital cost to rise and financing capacity to abate.Based on the perspective of“pessimistic expectation”,this paper explains how would future environmental policies change the current investment behavior of polluting enterprises.Furthermore,pollution levels,ownership,government support and local law conditions will significantly influence the relationship between air pollution and investment.This paper enriches the study on the relationship between air pollution and corporate decision-making and will be helpful for understanding the transmission mechanism and the effect of environmental policies.