中美俄在亚太:政策演变与博弈趋势

China,the United States and Russia in the Asia-Pacific:Policy Evolution and Future Trends

中、美、俄三国在亚太地区的合作与竞争,是影响亚太局势和地区格局的最重要因素。国际体系中的中美俄三角格局奠定了亚太地区中美俄关系的基调。冷战结束以来,美国一直致力于防范与遏制地区大国,维护其在亚太地区的霸权。中国的对亚太政策经历了从睦邻友好与务实合作到主动塑造亚太地区合作架构,构建亚太命运共同体的转变。俄罗斯由于国力衰退,安全和发展的战略重心都在欧洲等原因,其对亚太政策包括保障东部边界安全,发展与亚太国家的贸易、能源和军事技术合作,融入地区经济一体化等,因而在亚太地区影响有限。美国与中国的遏制与反制,成为亚太地区中美俄三边关系的主轴。亚太地区格局将向均衡、多元复合的区域秩序演进。

Cooperation and competition among China,the United States and Russia in the Asian-Pacific region is the most important factor affecting the situation and regional configuration in the Asian-Pacific.The Sino-U.S.-Russian triangle within the international system has set the tone for their trilateral relations in the Asia-Pacific region.Since the end of the Cold War,the U.S.has been committed to preventing and containing regional powers in order to maintain its hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region.China’s Asia-Pacific policy has undergone transformation from good-neighborly friendship and pragmatic cooperation to actively shaping cooperation mechanisms and building a community with a shared future in this region.Due to the decline of its national strength and its strategic focus of security and development on Europe,Russia’s Asia-Pacific policy includes ensuring the security of its eastern borders,developing trade,energy and military technology cooperation with other Asia-Pacific countries,and integrating itself into the regional economy.As a result,its influences in the Asia-Pacific are limited.American containment and China’s counter-containment have become the main axis of the Sino-U.S.-Russian trilateral relationship in the Asia-Pacific region.The Asia-Pacific will evolve towards a balanced,diversified and complicated regional order.