土地市场、财政压力与经济增长——基于省级面板VAR的实证分析

Land Market,Fiscal Pressure and Economic Growth:An Empirical analysis of Provincial Level Panel VAR Model

研究目的:在地方政府财政压力存在的情况下,考察土地市场对于经济增长波动的影响程度及动态相互作用机制。研究方法:面板向量自回归。研究结果:土地供给与经济增长之间存在长期的双向因果、相互促进关系;短期内,财政压力迫使地方政府干预土地出让市场以增加土地出让收入,但长期并不有效;地方政府的偏向性土地出让行为会提升土地出让市场化水平,但土地出让市场化水平提升对经济增长的贡献已不太显著。研究结论:基于土地供给对经济增长的影响具有短期效应,应改变对新增建设用地的依赖,加大存量土地的挖潜;对于面临的经济增长和财政压力,地方政府制定政策要进行长期目标和短期目标的权衡,增强土地供给方式和土地供给指标使用的灵活性。

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of land market and fiscal pressure on the fluctuation of economic growth and the dynamic interaction mechanism.The method of panel vector autoregression(PVAR)model is conducted.The results suggest that there is a long-term two-way causality and mutual promotion relationship between land supply and economic growth.In the short run,the fiscal gap makes local governments intervene in the land transfer market to obtain land transfer income,but it doesn’t work in the long run.The biased land transfer behavior of local governments enhances the marketization level of land transfer,while the contribution of the marketization level to economic growth has been less significant.In conclusion,considering the short-term effect of land supply on economic growth,the local governments should change the dependence on newly-added construction land and increase the potential of exploiting the extant construction land.Confronted with the economic growth and fiscal pressure,the local governments are advised to make policy by balancing long-term and short-term goals,and it is also vital to increase the flexibility of land supply patterns and the use of land supply indicators.